Grab your towel and DON'T PANIC

Oh no. Guys, they're doing it again. The media is trying to get us to freak out about something, when we don't need to.

If you've turned on the news today, it's more than a little likely that you've seen reporting about "China meets with Russia as Russia asks for help". The clear message they are trying to communicate is, you need to worry because China is about to supply Russia with weapons and stomp Ukraine and it will be WWIII.

Here's the thing: No. First of all, China tried to have a low-key phone call....and we intercepted it. Oof, that's embarrassing for them. I love the irony, considering when the US was about to release all the intelligence about Russia's plans a few weeks ago (which I think was a beautiful and adept response, one of the best uses of intelligence I've seen in my lifetime. Talk about taking the wind out of Putin's sails and stealing his narrative! But I digress...), China warned Russia. And now, look at that, we pulled the old Kansas City shuffle. Not only did this throw their communications off and steal the narrative AGAIN, but it makes it less likely that China will open itself up to (clearly intercepted) comms with the Kremlin again. It's just so messy and distasteful for them, you see.

The imbalance of the SIGINT intercepts for Russia and China aside, and the fact that this means we can broadcast further communications between the two...China wasn't going to supply Russia with weaponry anyway. A flailing and failing Russia means a vacuum...which China would love to fill. And (thus far) China is into the long game of war with markets, not supplying weaponry. Let alone the fact that they would then be iced out of two markets that are much bigger for them than Russia...Europe and the US. The media would you have think that China would say, "Dude we've just been waiting for you to ask!" And no, not at all.

And Putin is aware of this. Which is why he asked....for MREs. "Can you at least hook me up with some crackers?" That's how poorly this is going for Putin. We all know it, the strategy is abysmal, the costs are far outweighing any possible gain Putin is going to get out of this, the logistics are a nightmare; this is why he's been sacking and arresting all his advisors and generals. Trying to shift the blame, because after all, Russians love to depose/sacrifice failed leaders. And if this isn't a failure of leadership on an Olympian scale, what is? He's trying to shove the internet genie back in the bottle and suppress a worldly Russian populace, while fighting a literal war with the worst possible optics; did you know that Russian use of VPNs has jumped by several thousand percent since he tried to shut them off? This isn't the age of your parent's totalitarianism. This is going to be a hard thing to enforce.

So now the news would have you worried about this alliance, but there's no THERE there. Don't let it get to you. There's plenty to worry about, but Chinese leadership being as ignorant as Russian leadership isn't high up there on the "likely scenarios" list.